London, 2077

[Uranium235]

I'm confused a bit now, maybe there's some mistake, but I see this situation like this rn

That's exactly what I think that until you get into a decent version, you can’t talk about Shiori except Alice.
I remind you that in any case, his defense should have been external, that is, Sherlock is alive on the third night (Oliver spent his 2 on himself, we do not take him into account).
Who is Dryusha, if not Sherlock?

[Game Master]

Day 4 Exit Poll

Anony-mouse

(1): Kara_Mel

No vote (6):

pastor chivay

,

shiori

,

InVictA

,

Anony-mouse

,

Uranium235

Deadline SAT 7 PM. 5 hours left.

[Uranium235]

Kara_Mel

, I'm still waiting for an explanation about the Pastor. You put it on the list of mafia and maniacs as the least likely negative. And what is it, it turns out, you could not even come up with a peaceful role for him?
I do not believe.

Anony-mouse

, Mouse, what is silent?
Your Robin Caramel (who is not Robin, because he wants to pull it Shiori) votes you, the Pastor suspects enough to vote. If you are not sure that they are both a mafia and a maniac, then one of them should be persuaded right now.
I will not do this for you, I have my own front of work, and it is quite extensive.

[Kara_Mel]

I'm still waiting for an explanation about the Pastor. You put it on the list of mafia and maniacs as the least likely negative. And what is it, it turns out, you could not even come up with a peaceful role for him?
I do not believe.

That's a hard question. Firstly Pastor was LIZ (before Sue was killed), then I thought of him as a Jeeves/Oliver due to his relation with Goose, but it's too was a fake it seems.
Now if Pastor calling Shiori as a Griffin - then out of all options - Alice.

[shiori]

(1)
no kills

(2)
Sue * maf = Liz
Bratuxa * man = Scrooge

Drusha * Goose, Cara, Chivay, Putin, Shi, Anon = Sherlock

(3)
Falcon * mod = probably maf?

Putin * Cara, Anon, Shi, Uran = Biggles
Dmixn * mod = Marple

(4)
Goose * maf = Orlando
SamPie * man = Robin
Julik * mod = Jeeves

In game: 2 mafs, Todd, Oliver, Alice, Griffin.

So we need to hang a bandit. I think that Invicta is a maf. I can not decide, who is more suspicious, Anon or Cara-chan. I see Uran and Chivay less suspicious now. So I think that we should hang Invicta. Or to risk hazardously in choosing between Anon and Cara-chan.

[Uranium235]

That's a hard question. Firstly Pastor was LIZ (before Sue was killed), then I thought of him as a Jeeves/Oliver due to his relation with Goose, but it's too was a fake it seems.
Now if Pastor calling Shiori as a Griffin - then out of all options - Alice.

2 Alice, Shiori and Pastor.
Are you sure everything is fine in position, do not want to move anything?
Because seriously talking about cutting off your role in order to lure someone out there is absurd. It turns out, even if this opportunity really exists, you have it almost the main version of the development of events.
I would not say that the Pastor was confident in the attempt on Oliver, because he knew about it (general results with Jeeves).

[pastor chivay]

So I think that we should hang Invicta. Or to risk hazardously in choosing between Anon and Cara-chan.

InVictA will be modkilled for inactivity, we don't even need to hang them. We have to choose then

[Uranium235]

Or to risk hazardously in choosing between Anon and Cara-chan.

In game: 2 mafs, Todd, Oliver, Alice, Griffin.

Do you see the same as me?
Hint: I see an imitation of a misunderstanding of the situation, because not really understanding it with Shiori’s experience is not easy.

[Kara_Mel]

Dmixn * mod = Marple

If you agree with Dmixn as a Marple, then Mouse is given a false hint to his role as he basically called himself Marple.

InVictA will be modkilled for inactivity, we don't even need to hang them. We have to choose then

Fully correct, have to choose.

[Uranium235]

If you agree with Dmixn as a Marple, then Mouse is given a false hint to his role as he basically called himself Marple.

You still have 2 Alice, I'm waiting for a conclusion soon. And without ridiculous discussions about a special cut-off, please.

[Kara_Mel]

2 Alice, Shiori and Pastor.
Are you sure everything is fine in position, do not want to move anything?
Because seriously talking about cutting off your role in order to lure someone out there is absurd. It turns out, even if this opportunity really exists, you have it almost the main version of the development of events.
I would not say that the Pastor was confident in the attempt on Oliver, because he knew about it (general results with Jeeves).

Pastor's probability of being Alice arose after I told, that I agree, that Shiori can be a town player. With current change of roles - Shiori is back to Todd.
But I'll not write role-matching table as it's opportunity to be modkilled for role-knowing disclosure.

[Uranium235]

Pastor's probability of being Alice arose after I told, that I agree, that Shiori can be a town player. With current change of roles - Shiori is back to Todd.

What are the chances that dmksin is not marple, but someone else, for example, Scrooge or Sherlock?
As stated in one book, we compare two probabilities that add up to 100%: Marple and non Marple.

But I'll not write role-matching table as it's opportunity to be modkilled for role-knowing disclosure.

We can do without this, of course.
Usually they play with a stricter rule - you can’t call roles alive, only dead (except for obvious cases like a survey). This is now an educational game, loyal to how many restrictions you really need to observe.

[Anony-mouse]

Uranium235

,
We can have two mafa with mana, and we can be three townspeople - you, me and Invicta. In this case, whom should I convince?

Even if we have one mafia, it’s hard for me to identify another citizen. Caramel is a novice in this kind of mafia, Pastor is a novice in the mafia in general. I just don’t understand which reaction is natural for them and which is not.

[Uranium235]

We can have two mafa with mana, and we can be three townspeople - you, me and Invicta. In this case, whom should I convince?

The maniac is that it is time to get rid of the mafia, otherwise he too will lose even with the defenses.
It is obvious, If you see 2 mafias, then you need an alliance with Todd. But are there really two of them?

[Anony-mouse]

Umm ... I need to at least read what I write. I need to hang already for these terrible "mafa" and "mana".

[Uranium235]

Because 2 mafias - it means one of them is Moreau (death of Hyde and Scrooge, I think, everyone recognized).
Todd gets voice deprivation, the mafia kills the last peace. And even the death of one of the mafs entails the defeat of the maniac, because he is deprived of his voice and hangs 1-0 tomorrow by vote.
Well, if you do not recognize the death of Hyde, then the maniac will not kill the mafia because of the block - the result is the same for him.
So, if everything is so bad in the world, look for a maniac and convince him.

[Kara_Mel]

What are the chances that dmksin is not marple, but someone else, for example, Scrooge or Sherlock?
As stated in one book, we compare two probabilities that add up to 100%: Marple and non Marple.

If somehow Dmixn is not Marple (but I don't believe in it) - then Mouse is not lying and seems to be a real Marple.

Why do I not believe you might ask me. I can explain - even though it's an educational game - if everyone would do such analysis (with a direct hint) - the game is close to the end. No point in the mafia, then - just like giving screenshot with your role.
As a host - I saw such scenarios and do not tolerate them at all. And that's answer the question to me - why Mouse is alive right now after such move.

[Uranium235]

If somehow Dmixn is not Marple (but I don't believe in it) - then Mouse is not lying and seems to be a real Marple.

Why do I not believe you might ask me. I can explain - even though it's an educational game - if everyone would do such analysis (with a direct hint) - the game is close to the end. No point in the mafia, then - just like giving screenshot with your role.
As a host - I saw such scenarios and do not tolerate them at all. And that's answer the question to me - why Mouse is alive right now after such move.

You never named the exact probability.
50:50? 80:20?

My answer is that the master of the game is too loyal to the players now. Suppose he received a question from Mouse, if I could write so, and answered yes to it. Now it’s not easy to make modkill, because you have to act against your own promise.
The situation should be disassembled in the general case, like a normal showdown in a game where they are possible.
We certainly expect from an experienced full-role player that as a negative he will play out as if he had some kind of peaceful role. And how experienced is the mouse in this case? Maybe yes, maybe not.

[Anony-mouse]

But are there really two of them?

I can’t be sure. But to spend five hours convincing two possible mafiosi to vote in favor of the city ... Unfortunately I am not Wolf Messing. However, if we consider that there is a city dweller in the Kara_mel and pastor pair, then I would rather see a pastor as a city dweller.

[Uranium235]

I can’t be sure. But to spend five hours convincing two possible mafiosi to vote in favor of the city ... Unfortunately I am not Wolf Messing. However, if we consider that there is a city dweller in the Kara_mel and pastor pair, then I would rather see a pastor as a city dweller.

But Shiori is not necessary to convince?
He generally Marple is not among the living. Stupidity or blackness?

[Anony-mouse]

why Mouse is alive right now after such move.

I already said why. Because I submitted my text to the GM review.

But Shiori is not necessary to convince?

I see him as a maniac. And a maniac in such a situation is a natural ally of the city. Even if he later kills us all, now he is more likely to support our choice.

[Kara_Mel]

You never named the exact probability.
50:50? 80:20?

Maybe because I do not know exact probability? I can only say, that more than 50% for Mouse is not Marple and less than 50%, that he is Marple.

I already said why. Because I submitted my text to the GM review.

Oh, but that's only words, you know. Of course, you may have submitted, but it says nothing about your role.

[Uranium235]

Maybe because I do not know exact probability? I can only say, that more than 50% for Mouse is not Marple and less than 50%, that he is Marple.

Tell me more precisely. Over 50 is 51? Or 75? Or 99?
I like interest, they show more precisely than the words can be or I suspect.

[Kara_Mel]

Tell me more precisely. Over 50 is 51? Or 75? Or 99?

85 over 15, I'm almost 100% sure about the hint.

[Uranium235]

85 over 15, I'm almost 100% sure about the hint.

What is the probability that Shiori Todd?
I’m wondering in which place at least 10% gained on my manicism.

[Kara_Mel]

Tell me more precisely. Over 50 is 51? Or 75? Or 99?

85 over 15, I'm almost 100% sure about the hint.

From 15% there are 5% on the punch; 5% on the frock coat; 5% is general standard error.

[Anony-mouse]

I'm almost 100% sure about the hint.

You don’t even suspect how funny it sounds. How often it happens that gorgeous, brilliant and witty (as we think of them) hint decisions turn out to be simple coincidences.

[Kara_Mel]

What is the probability that Shiori Todd?

65% is Todd
20% is the town
15% is black (in case my mistake with Marple)

You don’t even suspect how funny it sounds. How often it happens that gorgeous, brilliant and witty (as we think of them) hint decisions turn out to be simple coincidences.

Then prove to me, that I'm wrong.

[Uranium235]

20% is the town

Nor can you come up with a peaceful role.
Tell me my chances of being Todd, it's interesting to compare.

[Kara_Mel]

I'll be off for half an hour, but then I'm ready to continue with the discussion.