London, 2077

[Uranium235]

I'm not planning to convince you anymore. Enough!
You're seeing problems and mafia in my actions - vote against me.

Are you sure?
There was already a similar conversation with Mouse. If someone wants him to vote, I satisfy the request. If peaceful does not fight - this is his defeat and not mine.
There are exceptions - but they are associated with games where it is impossible to execute someone (like Orlando is about now, but this ability has different incarnations).
So, now the mafia does not have such abilities.
Are you sure you have to vote against you? Well, I do not need other arguments in this case.
In general, I just started thinking about really possible options that I had not previously taken into account, because I thought that Alice’s action works differently.
Knowing that the move is shifted one position down relative to the “target of the translatable” and not relative to the “position of the translatable” can explain my survival perfectly - why take the risk against the translation, which will result in suicide, if you can kill so that X and X + 1 are acceptable goals, that is, a nemafia.

[Kara_Mel]

Are you sure?

Damn it, damn it all! I just don't know what else you're thinking about. I told you everything I know! I just cannot see what else I can tell to you.

I cannot find other explanations than I have already provided.

[Uranium235]

Damn it, damn it all! I just don't know what else you're thinking about. I told you everything I know! I just cannot see what else I can tell to you.

I cannot find other explanations than I have already provided.

Well, for example, what would be told in the classics.
What is the connection between the Mouse and three other mafes.
The description of the past newspaper plays very strongly against you.
First mention is that Caramel may be a victim of its own hand.
And then "the corporation is torn apart by internal contradictions."
These are very fat hints against you, of course I'm waiting for you to find another explanation for the situation. To show that there is such a peaceful role in the newspaper, but such and such is not and cannot be good either (but it’s difficult, I couldn’t, and GM wouldn’t do that, he knows my suspicions and mine logic).

[Kara_Mel]

What is the connection between the Mouse and three other mafes.

Between who I see as mafia or who YOU see as mafia? We have some differences.

[Uranium235]

Between who I see as mafia or who YOU see as mafia? We have some differences.

The one that Caramel sees. The language barrier, perhaps.
I think you understand that it was possible to do without complicated evidence and reasoning, and somehow you have to rhetorically resist the image of a player who didn’t do it not because he thinks alternatively, but because he couldn’t do it and is trying to pull at least some option to explain it.
That is, I'm now raking someone else's mistake. In any case, I’m raking it off, because the Pastor could recognize the mafia exactly yesterday. But in that picture where you are a city, not only he was mistaken.
A few mistakes, like an absurd 30% for a maniac without a single black action and the maximum muddy balance - they need to be outweighed by something very difficult and convincing.

[Kara_Mel]

02.  Dmixn - Marple
03.  Putin mod.2 - Biggles
04.  Sue Sharlin - LIZ
05.  l10ha - Orlando
06.  Falcon hunting - Hyde or Poppins
07.  shiori -  Todd
08.  Drusha - Moreau the Artie
09.  Bratuxa777 - Scrooge
10.  Julik1221 - Oliver
11.  SamPie - Robin
12.  InVictA - Jeeves

First of all let's get my list and correct Falcon's Role.

06.  Falcon hunting - Hyde
08.  Drusha - Moreau the Artie
09.  Bratuxa777 - Scrooge

Falcon hunting (3): Uranium235, pastor chivay, ｇｏｏｓｅ
 l10ha (1): Kara_Mel
None of the above (3): Putin mod.2, Anony-mouse, Drusha

Both Anony-mouse and Drusha voted for none, even though there was no chance to jail Falcon that night.

Drusha (5): l10ha, Kara_Mel, pastor chivay, Putin mod.2, shiori, Anony-mouse
 Anony-mouse  (2): InVictA, Drusha
 SamPie  (1): Uranium235

Vote from Anony-mouse was the last to Drusha, nice alibi.

Falcon was barely mentioned by Mouse, while he was alive and even rarer - when he was modkilled (except last days).

A few mistakes, like an absurd 30% for a maniac without a single black action and the maximum muddy balance - they need to be outweighed by something very difficult and convincing.

I told, that maniac killing inactive - is someone experienced. It's not an act of novice, and it takes guts - only Shiori and you left, so I had such distribution of probability.
The top one is actually my list, but somehow it's copied as Mouse's quote.

[Uranium235]

I told, that maniac killing inactive - is someone experienced. It's not an act of novice, and it takes guts - only Shiori and you left, so I had such distribution of probability.

You understand what I mean.
This should not have happened with the facts that were available to you at that moment about the roles of the retired and the cut-offs of the roles that I painted, if you did not paint something new for this.
Peaceful of the murders of a maniac knew 2 pieces - Bratuha and Sampai. Where the rest of the shots were was not known on average, given, among other things, that Oliver might not be a victim, but the author of a successful action against a completely active player.
That is, thinking is incorrect initially. Keeping it in spite of the most direct indication that you don’t need to do this looks much more like a necessary measure in order to record peace for someone you want to suspect later than a real misunderstanding of the situation.
Voting analytics isn't really interesting to me, actually. I'm interested in other connections, not what the mafia shows in an explicit form (voices), but those that appear by chance. For example, does he attribute the mafia to the murdered, does he consider peaceful the one who suspected another mafia.
That is, non-obvious events that allow you to build the picture that really is, and not the one that the mafia would like to show.

[Kara_Mel]

That is, thinking is incorrect initially. Keeping it in spite of the most direct indication that you don’t need to do this looks much more like a necessary measure in order to record peace for someone you want to suspect later than a real misunderstanding of the situation.

If there will be a next time - I'll take in into account and play differently. But for now, all I can say - this is how I saw the game, nothing more, nothing less.

[Anony-mouse]

A. I will point out one more thing, Uranium. The Falcon has not once mentioned me in his messages.  Not a single one. But he was very willing to communicate with Kara_Mel, more than a third of his messages are conversations with her.
You know him and you can assume whether this player can completely avoid communication with members of his gang.

And Drusha talked with me only in an attempt to find a replacement for himself to hang.

You can read these conversations yourself and make your own judgment.

[Uranium235]

You just did not vote in Messor and Bratuha, while such an opportunity still existed.
And when it came to the fact that Dmksin would be killed anyway, this was an occasion to refuse to vote on him.

That is, the vote itself does not allow me to conclude from the outside, more subtle points are needed.

[Uranium235]

A. I will point out one more thing, Uranium. The Falcon has not once mentioned me in his messages.  Not a single one. But he was very willing to communicate with Kara_Mel, more than a third of his messages are conversations with her.
You know him and you can assume whether this player can completely avoid communication with members of his gang.

And Drusha talked with me only in an attempt to find a replacement for himself to hang.

You can read these conversations yourself and make your own judgment.

My judgment in the case of Messor is that I can’t say anything concrete, any scenario is possible.
I see Dryusha as peaceful in principle. He did not try to count the votes so as not to leave, but wrote what he thought, and he thought that I or the Caramel Mafia, for example. Such phrases do not help much when you see that the voices which in theory can be cast are somewhat limited.
But I can imagine an option in which Putin-Mod was the mafia, and Drusha was the Beagle.
While Caramel sells me to Dryusha as a mafia, I can’t buy it, I just don’t believe in such a vote.
But she may be mistaken at the expense of him, and already the version that Putin-Mod is the Hyde mafia, and I can consider Dmksin Marple. Since in any case I’m raking errors, why not raking this one as well. You do not have an alibi for this vote, because you were obliged to save yourself, in any case, the silent person is not so valuable to the mafia, in any case.

[Uranium235]

Caramel, you know what it is.
I first wrote that Bratukha Scrooge.
That is, if he really was Scrooge, from the point of view of the mafia I fall into probable maniacs.
That may be the explanation that they give me a percent maniac.
I’m not saying that I couldn’t burn the mafia, for the purpose - do not touch me, we are in the same boat now, I know that there are fewer of you left. Generally could.
But much more likely would be a comment of the Shiori level:
The maniac's kill. The hint is "tiny piece of dark cloth, rectangular in shape". Victim was found near desktop, so it could be Miss Marple again, but she has laptop, not desktop, or Chris. Also Scrooge and Jekyll can match.
That is, he will not directly write the role of the victim, so as not to burn unambiguously.
Actually, this comment was one of the factors voting against him.
Therefore, I really do not like your percentage. If you consider that you are not an expert in calculating roles, and therefore you can do stupid things, then the first stupidity that comes to mind is to allow myself to think that I have burned in this way, although I kind of even commented on something about the fact that I’m trickier .

If there will be a next time - I'll take in into account and play differently. But for now, all I can say - this is how I saw the game, nothing more, nothing less.

Next time there will be other roles and a different situation. The author’s full-role sets are good because you need to think differently every time, and not repeat the worked out paths as in the classics.

I’m still waiting for the interpretation of yesterday’s newspaper. I was waiting for her yesterday and did not receive anything, but I saw a wild desire to leave the night quickly, as if there was nothing to think about during the day.
Well have to today. I repeat the claim. 2 times in the newspaper mentioned the possibility that the mafia shot itself. Moreover, this may not even be a tricky plan (as you know, the reverse information system makes this plan not tricky, but stupid), but a simple translation of the move from Alice when the murder went to Pastor.
Your version, based on the fact that you know firmly that this is not true.

[Kara_Mel]

I'll have some things to take care of, so:

1. Uranium, I'll admit one thing now - I've been lying about %. I got it wrong, who you would like to see it and it leads to 65+35+5. I was already as black as coal, so I have to not make any changes or extra explanation. Perhaps that was a mistake.

65% was percentage of Shiori being maniac out of 100% for all roles possible for him. It's different than I'll say 65% out of maniac is Shiori. The same goes with you, but you got it wrong and I followed. Why?

2. Newspaper.

This week does not stop amazing. At this critical moment, we once again have no citizens doomed to end their life tonight. This is a confusingly strange development of events if you contrast it to last voting's fierce invasion of the overseas beasts. It would be too early to call the night completely peaceful, however, as we still had one victim of an assault. It was Kara_Mel who reported about getting shot. Her wound was said to be of grave danger; nevertheless, we can see today that she feels better and is able to continue participating in our struggle. Was it mere luck, some mysterious stranger's service, or the result of her own efforts? We cannot say right now.

I think of it like that - my own efforts is that I wasn't killed (guess why?!), while luck is a shift by Alice from her to me.

65% was percentage of Shiori being maniac out of 100% for all roles possible for him. It's different than I'll say 65% out of maniac is Shiori. The same goes with you, but you got it wrong and I followed. Why?

But I saw no other thing to do, just to try to fit my opinion in your view.

[Uranium235]

I agree on the fact that my own efforts may well be related to treatment and not to a shot.
This item is fully accepted, this is exactly what I was expecting yesterday.

Now explain this one.

the government finds itself on the brink of collapse after fierce internal clashes

[Uranium235]

65% was percentage of Shiori being maniac out of 100% for all roles possible for him. It's different than I'll say 65% out of maniac is Shiori. The same goes with you, but you got it wrong and I followed. Why?

It's too much.
Shiori has 65, I have 30. But the standard error, as you said, is 5%. It turns out that 5% is the Pastor and the Mouse together. The mess.
At the moment, I have come to the conclusion that you will not be able to turn around with the Mouse, in principle, regardless of what is happening (if I'm wrong, say it now).

Thus, I want to listen to real claims to myself, for these very 30% maniac. What has been done wrong?
The mouse said so that he did not vote against me, why would I give him anything else to hint?
You should not have left so many percent, if you consider it as a peaceful player.
There is simply nowhere for them to come from.

I remind you that I need to prove something, as if I am 10 years old and down syndrome in addition.
So, imagining that this is so, explain how quote number 1 corresponds to quote number 2, since I see the opposite meaning in them.

Unfortunately, this is how I see the situation with 65-30-2.5-2.5 of a maniac.
Silent players killed by Todd and you're words to others of your percentage of being a maniac are just big hints to me.

Mafia is team-based game and I do not intend of ruining the game with principles of any sort. Provide more suitable and reasonable candidate and I will support.

The tags went astray, but I think the point is clear.
If you said earlier that 65-30-2.5-2.5 concerns the role of a maniac in general among the remaining roles, then why now say that it concerns the role of Shiori, and not all possible maniacs.

Here one thing is clearly wrong, and it is necessary to explain what exactly or why I am stupid.

[Kara_Mel]

So, I'm telling this, because I finally got where you meant a different thing and if you're put too much attention to % - I'll show the difference.

This is how you got my %, and at first, I didn't realize it, so later I had nothing, but to follow.



What I meant was:




These approaches are not equivalent.

the government finds itself on the brink of collapse after fierce internal clashes

I have no idea, but "on the brink of collapse" is definitely saying, that there is only one mafiosi left in the game. "internal clashes" can mean, that inside mafia the target was chosen not by majority/something stopped from the headshot, or something similar.

[Uranium235]

So, I'm telling this, because I finally got where you meant a different thing and if you're put too much attention to % - I'll show the difference.

This is how you got my %, and at first, I didn't realize it, so later I had nothing, but to follow.

I got a percentage from your own words.

30%, not much. You're trying to say, that you're Todd in last posts, including asking chances for you. So, you trying to say to Mouse, that you're the one who needed to be convinced?

Now let's do the math.
We know that in a game there is no more than one maniac (100%).
If Shiori has 65%, and I have 30%, so that the chances of a maniac in the game do not exceed 100%, the two remaining players (we believe that the one who responds as a maniac does not consider) should be together no more than 5% by maniac.

Otherwise, the percentages for the first two must be recalculated to the correct values.

I roughly understand what you are trying to say, you answered fragmentary questions, forgetting that the answers to them are connected by one function. That is, they called relative probabilities.
My task at that moment was to show you that the relative probability and absolute probability - that is, the set of relative for each player may not coincide.
But it turned out that the concepts of relative and absolute probability changed, and at the same time there were no contradictions between 30 and 30, and I could not tell what I wanted, because there was nothing special to tell, everything formally coincided.
In general, the explanation is accepted, you escaped immediate death for the actual contradiction in words.

But I still do not agree that even the relative (as we now understand) the probability of a maniac in me could remain at that level. In what place were you so black as not to give explanations to your possible peaceful?
There is a simple sign - in that case, I would already vote. If I still don’t think about the voice, then there are options.
And I'm still waiting for an explanation of the second part of the newspaper, with contradictions within the corporation that describe the shot very well.

[Kara_Mel]

And I'm still waiting for an explanation of the second part of the newspaper, with contradictions within the corporation that describe the shot very well.

It's above.

[Uranium235]

I have no idea, but "on the brink of collapse" is definitely saying, that there is only one mafiosi left in the game. "internal clashes" can mean, that inside mafia the target was chosen not by majority/something stopped from the headshot, or something similar.

No, I do not like.
GM will not describe conflicts within the conference of the Mafia.
Any more ideas?
For example, do you think Poppins shot you or was transferred to you from Pastor?
Again, percentages (relative), you can have more / less than 50 on something.

[Kara_Mel]

GM will not describe conflicts within the conference of the Mafia.

If you say, that he cannot...

Judging by the overall situation - the shot was transferred with 90% of possibility. There is no need to reflect, that shot to me is something leading to "internal clashes".

Judging by the overall situation - the shot was transferred with 90% of possibility. There is no need to reflect, that shot to me is something leading to "internal clashes".

I meant - otherwise - there is no need to reflect, that shot to me is something leading to "internal clashes".
Of course, you can tell, that I shot myself, but it makes no sense to me, I'm sorry. It looked like a desperate attempt from Mouse to save him.

[Anony-mouse]

Kara_Mel

, Umm ... I have to tell you that all your efforts are in vain. Uranium has a 100% payout method for the city. He just won't vote. As a result, I will die, but you will die too. Uranium will remain the only urban player. easy-breezy  Even without a 0.01% chance of error.

[Game Master]

Day 6 Exit Poll

Anony-mouse

(1): Kara_Mel

Kara_Mel

(1): Anony-mouse

No vote:

Uranium235

Deadline TUE 2 PM. 16 hours left.

[Uranium235]

You can consider that Dmksin Hyde, but there are still some inconsistencies in the roles, for example, Messor is not a mafia, so that Marple would die elsewhere?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Jekyll_and_Mr._Hyde_(character)

Here I am reading an article.
Jekyll Hyde is definitely a frock coat.
Hyde is a fan of hitting someone, even if you have not read the story itself, it is quite obvious from the description.

This is all the information that is about Dmksin.
By the way, if you open an article about marmite, you can see that he is part of the diet of soldiers of the First World War, and such was Biggles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marmite
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biggles

That is, I considered that there may be a mistake in Putin-fashion, but it seems that it definitely does not exist.

I cannot take Marple as the one who suddenly struck Beagle.
Absolutely.
Having such a description as Hyde and such as Marple, I can not play this version.

But there is still a chance to show me that despite the fact that Dmksin Hyde, Marple is dead before.
Now I am waiting for this.

Kara_Mel

, Umm ... I have to tell you that all your efforts are in vain. Uranium has a 100% payout method for the city. He just won't vote. As a result, I will die, but you will die too. Uranium will remain the only urban player. easy-breezy  Even without a 0.01% chance of error.

What is that statement?
If I don’t vote, there will be a draw on which the one against whom the vote was cast earlier is eliminated (that is, you).

[Anony-mouse]

If I don’t vote, there will be a draw on which the one against whom the vote was cast earlier is eliminated (that is, you).

Yeah. I have re-read rules. Sorry, you still have to make a choice. And I really hoped.

[Uranium235]

Oh yes, another deletion from the story.
For us, Laura Jekyll is a hacker, this is also a correct description, if it is a description at all.

Yeah. I have re-read rules. Sorry, you still have to make a choice. And I really hoped.

I did not like this statement.
Because in the event that I really agreed not to vote, you would be able to withdraw your vote, and thus the day will end without penalty, which is beneficial for the mafia.
Of course, such a plan cannot work against me. But this does not mean that the attempt, which can be interpreted in this way, colors you. Not at all.

[Anony-mouse]

Because in the event that I really agreed not to vote, you would be able to withdraw your vote, and thus the day will end without penalty, which is beneficial for the mafia.

I saw this opportunity and wanted to ask GM if it is possible to make my voice irreversible. But now it doesn’t matter.

[Kara_Mel]

But there is still a chance to show me that despite the fact that Dmksin Hyde, Marple is dead before.
Now I am waiting for this.

I don't have anything to show - all my reasonings are based on what I have stated previously. I cannot do anything more. I know who you are and who I am, but I cannot convince you, that this is not Marple. If you cannot play with such an idea - I'm lack of any other ideas, unfortunately.

[Uranium235]

A variant must definitely exist.
In the end, https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/meatbag
Like a meat bag! the robot should have said.

I can’t find an exact definition of who it is, in fact, because the character is a hybrid from Moriarty and Dr. Moreau, as well as the other is a hybrid of Sherlock and Dr. Watson.

In general, if it is possible to interpret something falsely, there should be an opportunity to show real data.

[Uranium235]

Doctor Moreau the Artie
The Bacon Rind. A confidant of the Queen and éminence grise of her cabinet. Owner of cyclopean underground genetic laboratories. Nurtures plans capable to appall the Queen herself. He considers them an art, though.

It seems that the hand not of Her Majesty, but her boss — also known as God — personally reaped Falcon's soul.

Descriptions are very similar to Moro.
In any case, Moreau needs to be defined between Drusha and Messor, because

The city council is paralyzed

And he himself is the highest cardinal of the cabinet (ministers), in other words. That is, in any case, one of them.

I have no clue to say why Messor might be Hyde, but there is a clue to Moro.

[Game Master]

Righty-O folks, I'm going for a nap. Just remember the time limits. I have the papers for both possible endings and will close the game tomorrow at 2:00-2:20 pm. The log will need a day or two more of rather intensive work (b/c I was being lazy), but you will be free to discuss anything in the language of your choice. I'd be happy to read the players who also left the game earlier. C u l8r!